Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Central Java using the Autoregressive (AR) Method

Tangguh Widodo; Siti Maghfiroh; Surya Haganta Brema Ginting; Alif Aryaputra; Sudianto Sudianto

doi:10.20895/dinda.v3i1.740

Tangguh Widodo Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
Siti Maghfiroh Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
Surya Haganta Brema Ginting Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
Alif Aryaputra Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
Sudianto Sudianto Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto

DOI: https://doi.org/10.20895/dinda.v3i1.740

Keywords: Covid-19, Autoregressive, Forecasting, Mean Squared Error

Abstract

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia in March 2020, more than 6 million confirmed cases had been confirmed. The rapid development of this case can be accessed through the covid19.go.id page. In Central Java province, confirmed cases as of July 6, 2022, reached 628,393 people, with the number of recovered patients reaching 594,783 people and the number of patients dying as many as 33,215 people. With this data, a prediction is needed to help the government anticipate an increase in Covid-19 cases in Central Java Province. This study aims to create a forecasting model using the Autoregressive (AR) method by optimizing the function parameters. Then Mean Squared Error (MSE) to analyze the results of forecasting data errors. The results are the best parameter functions on AR (30) with the smallest MSE. Furthermore, predictions are made from July 1 to August 30, 2022, showing an increase in cases