Prediction of Covid-19 Cases in Central Java using the Autoregressive (AR) Method

  • Tangguh Widodo Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
  • Siti Maghfiroh Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
  • Surya Haganta Brema Ginting Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
  • Alif Aryaputra Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
  • Sudianto Sudianto Institut Teknologi Telkom Purwokerto
Keywords: Covid-19, Autoregressive, Forecasting, Mean Squared Error


Since the beginning of the Covid-19 case in Indonesia in March 2020, more than 6 million confirmed cases had been confirmed. The rapid development of this case can be accessed through the page. In Central Java province, confirmed cases as of July 6, 2022, reached 628,393 people, with the number of recovered patients reaching 594,783 people and the number of patients dying as many as 33,215 people. With this data, a prediction is needed to help the government anticipate an increase in Covid-19 cases in Central Java Province. This study aims to create a forecasting model using the Autoregressive (AR) method by optimizing the function parameters. Then Mean Squared Error (MSE) to analyze the results of forecasting data errors. The results are the best parameter functions on AR (30) with the smallest MSE. Furthermore, predictions are made from July 1 to August 30, 2022, showing an increase in cases